鋰電池市場(chǎng)通過(guò)梯次利用回收結(jié)合起來(lái)，能延長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)品生命周期降低成本嗎
來(lái)源：寶鄂實(shí)業(yè)
2019-06-29 11:20
點(diǎn)擊量：次
隨著補(bǔ)貼退坡，產(chǎn)品將回歸市場(chǎng)主導(dǎo)，動(dòng)力電池企業(yè)需要拼成本、拼產(chǎn)品，加速行業(yè)優(yōu)勝劣汰。業(yè)內(nèi)人士向記者表示，面對(duì)無(wú)補(bǔ)貼市場(chǎng)，企業(yè)已通過(guò)各種手段來(lái)降低成本。
從技術(shù)角度，可以通過(guò)提升電池的一致性，提高產(chǎn)品良品率，增大電芯尺寸，實(shí)現(xiàn)電池結(jié)構(gòu)件輕量化等方式實(shí)現(xiàn)整體成本的下降。
從生產(chǎn)角度，可以通過(guò)提高產(chǎn)量、擴(kuò)大規(guī)模效應(yīng)，提升自動(dòng)化水平、實(shí)現(xiàn)模塊化設(shè)計(jì)來(lái)降低成本。
從商業(yè)模式上，可以通過(guò)實(shí)施車(chē)電分離、電池租賃、汽車(chē)金融、以租代購(gòu)等方式來(lái)淡化電池成本；也可以將新能源汽車(chē)、儲(chǔ)能、梯次利用回收結(jié)合起來(lái)，通過(guò)延長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)品生命周期來(lái)降低成本。
轉(zhuǎn)戰(zhàn)細(xì)分領(lǐng)域
業(yè)內(nèi)人士向記者表示，補(bǔ)貼退坡乃至完全退出是板上釘釘?shù)氖?，整個(gè)行業(yè)早已開(kāi)始為無(wú)補(bǔ)貼市場(chǎng)做準(zhǔn)備，有些選擇找細(xì)分市場(chǎng)做專(zhuān)攻的，有些提前備糧過(guò)冬，有些則選擇兼并重組。。。。。。
起點(diǎn)鋰電大數(shù)據(jù)了解到，去年以來(lái)已經(jīng)有大批二三線動(dòng)力電池企業(yè)開(kāi)始調(diào)整市場(chǎng)策略，轉(zhuǎn)向小動(dòng)力、電動(dòng)工具、電動(dòng)自行車(chē)、儲(chǔ)能和低速車(chē)等不依賴補(bǔ)貼的細(xì)分市場(chǎng)，這些市場(chǎng)一般都是現(xiàn)金交易，付款情況良好。
With subsidies declining, products will return to market dominance. Power battery companies need to fight for costs and products to speed up the industry's survival of the fittest. Industry insiders told reporters that in the face of the non-subsidized market, enterprises have adopted various means to reduce costs.
From the technical point of view, the overall cost can be reduced by improving the consistency of batteries, improving the rate of good products, increasing the size of batteries, and realizing lightweight batteries.
From the production point of view, we can reduce costs by increasing production, expanding scale effect, improving automation level and realizing modular design.
From the business model, the cost of batteries can be diluted through the implementation of vehicle-electricity separation, battery leasing, automobile finance, rent on behalf of purchase, etc. It can also combine new energy vehicles, energy storage, cascade utilization and recycling to reduce costs by prolonging the product life cycle.
Subdividing the field of warfare
Industry insiders told reporters that subsidies to retreat or even to withdraw completely is a matter of certainty. The whole industry has already begun to prepare for the non-subsidized market. Some choose to specialize in market segments, some prepare grain in advance for winter, and some choose to merge and reorganize....
Starting from the data of Lithium and Television University, it is known that since last year, a large number of second and third-line power battery companies have begun to adjust their market strategies to small power, power tools, electric bicycles, energy storage and low-speed vehicles, which are not dependent on subsidies. These markets are generally cash transactions, and payment is good.
In the field of electric tools, the annual composite growth rate of lithium battery market is 6.6%, and the market scale is expected to exceed 120 billion yuan by 2020.
In the field of electric bicycles, relevant documents banning lead acid have been formally implemented, which opens the door of policy for opening the era of full replacement of lithium batteries. At present, there are about 200 million electric bicycles in the domestic market. The average electricity consumption per vehicle is 0.6 KWh, which will bring at least 18 GWh demand for lithium batteries.
In the field of energy storage, the data show that the capacity of China's energy storage market will exceed 600 billion yuan in the next decade. By 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of China's energy storage market will exceed 50 GW, and the investment and construction of energy storage will reach 230 billion yuan.
In the telecommunication market, it is estimated that if the existing ordinary lead-acid batteries of China Mobile were replaced by lithium iron phosphate batteries, the market scale would be as high as 800 billion yuan, and the whole telecommunication industry would be a potential market of hundreds of billions or even trillions.
Rewarming of lithium iron phosphate
In the past, because of the policy to encourage high energy density, ternary batteries emerged as the mainstream of the industry. Now, with the decline of subsidies, the introduction of high nickel ternary batteries has slowed down, and the safer and cheaper lithium iron phosphate has a great potential to fight back.
One proof is that the proportion of lithium iron phosphate in the announcement of new products issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has been rising steadily since the beginning of this year, increasing to more than 70% from the beginning.
In 316 batches of announcements, lithium iron phosphate accounted for 50%, 317 batches of announcements accounted for 60.4%, 318 batches of announcements accounted for 61.9%, 319 batches of announcements accounted for 69.7%, 320 batches of announcements accounted for 72.5%, 321 batches of announcements accounted for 72.7%.
Industry analysis shows that with the decline of subsidies, the cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate will be highlighted, and there will be great potential in the pursuit of cost-effective areas. On the one hand, high-end passenger cars will continue to use high-energy density ternary batteries to obtain high-end subsidies for international car companies; on the other hand, in the price-sensitive area of passenger cars below grade A0, some companies will turn to lithium iron phosphate batteries with higher performance-price ratio. Especially for vehicles with 150 - 250 kilometers driving distance, lithium iron phosphate has more cost advantages and will be favored by the market.在電動(dòng)工具領(lǐng)域，鋰電池市場(chǎng)年均復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)6.6%，預(yù)計(jì)到2020年市場(chǎng)規(guī)模將超過(guò)1200億元。
在電動(dòng)自行車(chē)領(lǐng)域，禁用鉛酸的相關(guān)文件已正式實(shí)施，這為開(kāi)啟鋰電池全面替換時(shí)代打開(kāi)了政策大門(mén)。而當(dāng)前國(guó)內(nèi)電動(dòng)自行車(chē)的市場(chǎng)保有量約2億輛，每輛車(chē)平均用電量0.6KWh測(cè)算，將為鋰電池帶來(lái)至少18GWh的需求量。
在儲(chǔ)能領(lǐng)域，數(shù)據(jù)顯示，未來(lái)十年我國(guó)儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)的容量將超6000億元，到2020年，我國(guó)儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)累計(jì)裝機(jī)規(guī)模將超過(guò)50GW，儲(chǔ)能投資建設(shè)規(guī)模將達(dá)到2300億元。
在通訊市場(chǎng)，據(jù)測(cè)算，如果把中國(guó)移動(dòng)現(xiàn)有的普通鉛酸電池全部替換成磷酸鐵鋰電池，市場(chǎng)規(guī)模高達(dá)8000億元，而整個(gè)通信行業(yè)是幾千億甚至上萬(wàn)億的潛在市場(chǎng)。
磷酸鐵鋰回暖
曾經(jīng)，由于政策鼓勵(lì)高能量密度，三元電池乘風(fēng)而起，成為行業(yè)主流，如今隨著補(bǔ)貼退坡，高鎳三元電池導(dǎo)入放緩，更安全、成本更低的磷酸鐵鋰大有反撲之勢(shì)。
一個(gè)佐證是，今年以來(lái)工信部發(fā)布的新產(chǎn)品公告中，磷酸鐵鋰所占比重一路上升，從開(kāi)始的二分天下增長(zhǎng)至七成以上。
在第316批公告中，磷酸鐵鋰占50%，317批公告中占比60.4%，318批公告中占比61.9%，319批公告中占比69.7%，320批公告中占比72.5%，321批公告中占比72.7%。
業(yè)內(nèi)分析認(rèn)為，隨著補(bǔ)貼退坡，磷酸鐵鋰的成本優(yōu)勢(shì)將凸顯，在追求性價(jià)比的領(lǐng)域?qū)⒋笥锌蔀?。一方面，高端乘用?chē)將繼續(xù)使用高能量密度的三元電池，以對(duì)標(biāo)國(guó)際車(chē)企，獲取高檔補(bǔ)貼；另一方面，在對(duì)價(jià)格敏感的A0級(jí)以下乘用車(chē)領(lǐng)域，部分車(chē)企將轉(zhuǎn)向性價(jià)比更高的磷酸鐵鋰電池。尤其是續(xù)駛里程150—250公里的車(chē)，由于磷酸鐵鋰更具成本優(yōu)勢(shì)，將得到市場(chǎng)青睞。?? ??? ?? ??? ??? ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ??, ???? ??, ?? ?? ??? ???? ???.?? ???? ???? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?? ??? ?? ??? ????? ???.
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