自產(chǎn)電池可以有效降低電動(dòng)車生產(chǎn)成本嗎
來(lái)源：寶鄂實(shí)業(yè)
2019-06-25 09:24
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In October 2016, two former executives from Tesla founded Northvolt with the mission of producing the most environmentally friendly batteries. For a while, Northvolt was favored by Europe. Three months later, Northvolt received an initial financing of 12 million euros from Vattenfall, Stena, InnoEnergy, Swedish Energy Agency and Vinnova.
Northvolt was once considered to be the "Ningde Age of Europe" because of its corporate goals and development plans that favored recycling. Later, the first Northvolt Laboratory was built in Sweden, where environmental protection is paramount. It is a solid first step for enterprises to gain a foothold in Europe.
Until February 2018, Northvolt, driven by customer demand, developed its first prototype battery module, Northvolt Battery Systems, and delivered its first test unit a month later. At that time, Northvolt really entered the vision of European car companies.
After launching a series of industrial partnerships and receiving support from the European Investment Bank and the Swedish Energy Agency, Northvolt began building Northvolt Laboratory in Westros. This initiative marks the first step in establishing a European value chain for large-scale manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries. At present, three factories are under construction. With the completion of Northvolt Labs, Northvolt's first prismatic battery will be put into production.
It is understood that Northvolt has obtained two environmental permits and its production capacity has reached 16 Gwh/year. In June this year, Volkswagen Group and Goldman Sachs and other companies co-led Euro 900 million equity financing. In addition, Northvolt official revealed that the majority of Northvolt Ett's battery production has been sold, with orders totaling more than $13 billion by 2030.
It may not have occurred to anyone that Northvolt, as a battery startup, could achieve such a development in just three years. However, this can not be separated from the support of the European Union and local governments.
Battery Electric Vehicle
According to Volkswagen Group's plan, in the next 10 years, Volkswagen will introduce nearly 70 brand-new electric vehicles to the market, and the future production of new energy vehicles based on Volkswagen Group's electric platform is expected to reach 22 million vehicles. Meanwhile, Volkswagen predicts that its own demand for batteries in Europe and Asia alone will increase to more than 300 Gwh a year.
At the same time, Volkswagen's electric vehicle capacity is expanding rapidly. In 2019, the Zweikao plant will be put into operation, with an estimated capacity of more than 300,000 vehicles, which will be the highest pure electric vehicle factory in Europe. With Volkswagen's electric vehicle capacity in China, incomplete statistics will exceed 930,000 by the end of 2020.
At present, Volkswagen Group's enterprises in China have signed strategic cooperation agreements with Ningde Times and Guoxuan Technologies. There are also rumors that they will cooperate with BYD in the production of power batteries. Although Volkswagen has signed more than $60 billion in battery orders, Volkswagen believes that this is far from satisfying Volkswagen's production capacity, and Volkswagen predicts that these orders will only last until 2025.
In addition, the power battery industry has been in short supply. Due to the shortage of Panasonic batteries, Tesla limited the production of Model 3. The shortage of LG chemical power batteries also affected the production of Audi e-tron. Audi had to reduce the production capacity of electric SUVs from 55,830 to 45,242 this year, while delaying the production time of Sportback to next year.
According to the calculation of relevant institutions, the maximum cost of batteries is equivalent to 60% of the cost of the whole vehicle. According to the domestic market price, the price of ternary lithium batteries is about 1.5 yuan/wh, while the cost of ternary batteries is less than 0.9 yuan/wh. It can be inferred that the production cost of EV can be effectively reduced by the self-made battery.
It is believed that in the face of such a large demand, the public is unwilling to become a passive party in the industrial chain, thus creating dependence, so building a battery factory will be the greatest protection for their own enterprises.
Passive variable active European batteries are more promising
In fact, the production capacity of the power battery industry's head enterprises is limited, but the customers are endless. It is difficult for the latter to bind high-quality resources in a short period of time. Therefore, some industry experts believe that the practice of the public is worth learning from.
The expert also said that, compared with the flourishing of power battery companies in China and even Asia, the power battery industry in Europe is less well-known. This is part of the reason why Northvolt can develop in a short time. Now, Ningde era is about to build battery factories in Europe, but this factory can only be assembled more, the core technology is still held by Ningde era, that is to say, it is difficult for Europe to obtain the core technology of power battery manufacturing. Some industry experts said that based on the current development of power batteries in Europe, no matter which enterprise is likely to become the industry leader, and the probability is very high.
At the same time, Li Wanli, an expert of the Expert Academic Committee of China International Engineering Consulting Corporation, believes that when a large number of domestic European automobile companies sign orders with external battery companies, part of the capital flows to the outside world. In view of the current control of the anti-monopoly situation in the EU, the EU also hopes to see its own power battery companies serving its own car companies in Europe. The financial support of the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Energy of Germany has also fulfilled the national will of the cooperation between the public and Northvolt.
Data show that China has sold more than 3 million pure electric vehicles, and 50% of the world's electric vehicles are in China. Li Wanli said that the rapid development of China's electric vehicles mostly depends on the leading role of national policies, which is from top to bottom.2016年10月，兩位來(lái)自特斯拉的前高管創(chuàng)立了Northvolt，并將生產(chǎn)最環(huán)保的電池作為使命，一時(shí)間，Northvolt被歐洲看好，三個(gè)月過(guò)后，Northvolt就得到了來(lái)自Vattenfall，Stena，InnoEnergy，瑞典能源署和Vinnova五方的1200萬(wàn)歐元初始融資。
由于Northvolt的企業(yè)目標(biāo)以及偏向回收利用的發(fā)展規(guī)劃，Northvolt一度被認(rèn)為是“歐洲的寧德時(shí)代”。后來(lái)，在“環(huán)保至上”的瑞典建造了首個(gè)Northvolt實(shí)驗(yàn)室，為企業(yè)在歐洲站位邁出堅(jiān)實(shí)的第一步。
直到2018年2月，Northvolt在客戶需求的推動(dòng)下，開(kāi)發(fā)出了第一個(gè)電池模塊原型——NorthvoltBatterySystems，并在一個(gè)月之后，交付了第一個(gè)測(cè)試單元。這時(shí)的Northvolt真正進(jìn)入了歐洲車企的視線中。
在啟動(dòng)了一系列工業(yè)合作伙伴關(guān)系以及獲得歐洲投資銀行和瑞典能源機(jī)構(gòu)的支持后，Northvolt開(kāi)始在韋斯特羅斯建設(shè)Northvolt實(shí)驗(yàn)室。這一舉措標(biāo)志著建立歐洲大規(guī)模鋰離子電池制造價(jià)值鏈的第一步。目前，三家工廠都在建設(shè)當(dāng)中，隨著NorthvoltLabs即將完工，Northvolt的第一個(gè)棱柱形電池即將投入生產(chǎn)。
據(jù)了解，Northvolt目前已經(jīng)獲得兩份環(huán)境許可，生產(chǎn)能力已達(dá)到16Gwh/年。今年6月，大眾集團(tuán)和高盛等企業(yè)共同領(lǐng)導(dǎo)了9億歐元的股權(quán)融資。此外，Northvolt官方透露，NorthvoltEtt的電池產(chǎn)量的大部分已售出，2030年訂單總值將超過(guò)130億美元。
或許誰(shuí)也沒(méi)有想到，Northvolt作為電池初創(chuàng)企業(yè)，在短短三年內(nèi)就可以獲得這樣的發(fā)展。然而，這背后離不開(kāi)歐盟和地方政府的支持。
電池≈電動(dòng)車
根據(jù)大眾汽車集團(tuán)規(guī)劃顯示，未來(lái)10年，大眾汽車將向市場(chǎng)推出近70款全新電動(dòng)車行，未來(lái)基于該集團(tuán)電動(dòng)化平臺(tái)生產(chǎn)的新能源汽車預(yù)計(jì)達(dá)到2200萬(wàn)輛。同時(shí)，大眾預(yù)測(cè)，自身僅在歐洲和亞洲對(duì)電池的需求量將增加至每年300Gwh以上。
同時(shí)，大眾汽車的電動(dòng)車產(chǎn)能正在急速擴(kuò)張，2019年茨維考工廠投產(chǎn)，預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)能將超過(guò)30萬(wàn)輛，將是歐洲產(chǎn)能最高的純電動(dòng)汽車工廠。加上大眾在中國(guó)的電動(dòng)車產(chǎn)能，不完全統(tǒng)計(jì)將在2020年底超過(guò)93萬(wàn)輛。
目前，大眾集團(tuán)在華企業(yè)也已和寧德時(shí)代、國(guó)軒高科簽署了戰(zhàn)略合作協(xié)議，也有傳言要與比亞迪進(jìn)行動(dòng)力電池生產(chǎn)合作。雖然，大眾目前已經(jīng)簽訂了超過(guò)600億美元的電池訂單，可大眾認(rèn)為，這遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不能滿足于大眾汽車的產(chǎn)能，大眾預(yù)測(cè)，這些訂單也只能支撐到2025年。
此外，動(dòng)力電池行業(yè)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了產(chǎn)能供不應(yīng)求的狀況。因松下電池供應(yīng)不足，特斯拉限制了Model3的產(chǎn)量，LG化學(xué)動(dòng)力電池供應(yīng)不足也影響到了奧迪e-tron的產(chǎn)能，奧迪不得不將今年電動(dòng)SUV產(chǎn)能由55830輛下調(diào)至45242輛，同時(shí)推遲了sportback版的量產(chǎn)時(shí)間至明年。
據(jù)相關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu)測(cè)算，電池成本最大相當(dāng)于整車成本的60%。根據(jù)國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格顯示，三元鋰電池售價(jià)約為1.5元/wh，而三元電芯的成本不足0.9元/wh。由此可以推斷，自產(chǎn)電池可以有效降低電動(dòng)車生產(chǎn)成本。
相信，大眾在如此大的需求量面前，不愿意成為產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈中被動(dòng)的一方，從而產(chǎn)生依賴，因此自建電池工廠將是對(duì)自身企業(yè)最大的保護(hù)。
被動(dòng)變主動(dòng)歐洲電池更有可為
事實(shí)上，動(dòng)力電池行業(yè)頭部企業(yè)的產(chǎn)能是有限的，但是客戶是源源不斷的，對(duì)于后到車企而言很難程度上可以在短時(shí)間內(nèi)綁定優(yōu)質(zhì)資源，因此有行業(yè)專家認(rèn)為，大眾的做法值得車企借鑒。
該專家還表示，相比于中國(guó)乃至亞洲動(dòng)力電池企業(yè)的百花齊放，歐洲動(dòng)力電池領(lǐng)域馳名的很少，Northvolt之所以可以在短時(shí)間內(nèi)發(fā)展起來(lái)，其中一部分原因正是出此。現(xiàn)在，寧德時(shí)代即將在歐洲建造電池工廠，但是這個(gè)工廠更多的只能是組裝，核心技術(shù)依舊被寧德時(shí)代持有，也就是說(shuō)，歐洲很難獲得動(dòng)力電池制造的核心技術(shù)。有行業(yè)專家表示，基于歐洲現(xiàn)階段動(dòng)力電池發(fā)展來(lái)看，無(wú)論哪個(gè)企業(yè)都有可能成為行業(yè)頭部企業(yè)，并且?guī)茁屎艽蟆?/p>
同時(shí)，中國(guó)國(guó)際工程咨詢公司專家學(xué)術(shù)委員會(huì)專家李萬(wàn)里認(rèn)為，當(dāng)大量歐洲本土車企與外部電池企業(yè)簽署訂單時(shí)，部分資金流向外部。出于歐盟現(xiàn)階段對(duì)于反壟斷局勢(shì)的把控，歐盟也更希望可以在歐洲本土見(jiàn)到自己的動(dòng)力電池企業(yè)服務(wù)于本國(guó)車企。在大眾和Northvolt合作一事上，德國(guó)聯(lián)邦經(jīng)濟(jì)事務(wù)部和能源部的資金支持也坐實(shí)了這項(xiàng)合作的國(guó)家意志。
數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國(guó)純電動(dòng)汽車銷售已經(jīng)超過(guò)300萬(wàn)輛，世界上50%的電動(dòng)汽車都在中國(guó)。李萬(wàn)里表示，中國(guó)電動(dòng)車之所以能夠快速發(fā)展多依賴于國(guó)家政策的引領(lǐng)導(dǎo)向作用，這種從上至下的行為使得中國(guó)電動(dòng)車發(fā)展速度明顯快于歐洲，反觀歐洲，多是自下至上，還要再面臨議會(huì)法規(guī)的限制，也就造成了亞歐動(dòng)力電池發(fā)展差異。
2016? 10? ? ??? ????? ? ????? Northvolt ? ????, ?? ????? ???? ????, ? ??, Northvolt ? ???? ? ?? 3??? ??? Northvolt ?? Vattenfall, Stenfall, Stanna, ??? ????? Vinnova 5?? 1200? ?? ????.
Northvolt ? ?? ?? ? ?? ??? ?? ??, Northvolt ??'??? ????'? ???.?? ‘?? ?? ’? ??? ?? Northvolt ???? ?? ??? ?? ?? ??? ??? ? ?? ??? ??.
2018? 2??? Northvolt ? ?? ??? ?? ?? ? ??? ?? ??? ????. Northvoltbatterysystems, ? ? ? ? ?? ??? ??? ????.?? Northvolt ? ?? ??? ??? ??? ????.
??? ??????? ??? ???? ??????? ??? ??? ??? ??? ?? ? Northvolt ?? ????? ??? ??thvolt ???? ???? ????.? ??? ??? ??? ?? ???? ?? ?? ??? ??? ???? ????.?? ? ??? ???? ?? ??? NorthvoltLabs ? ???? ???, Northvolt ? ??? ???? ??? ????.
Northvolt ? ?? ? ????? ???? ????? ?? 16Gwh / ?? ? ????? ??? ????.?? 6? ????? ?? ? ??? 9? ??? ?? ??? ?? ????.? ?? Northvolt ??? ??? Northvoltet ??? ???? ??? ????? 2030? ?? ??? 130? ??? ?? ???? ???.
Northvolt ? ??? ????? 3? ?? ?? ??? ?? ? ??? ?? ??? ???? ???.??? ? ??? ????? ????? ??? ??? ? ??.
???
????? ??? ??? ???, ??? 10?, ?????? ??? 70?? ??? ???? ??? ????, ??? ? ??? ???????? ???? ???? ???? 2200? ?? ?? ??? ????.?? ?? ???? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ?? 300Gwh ?? ??? ??? ????.
??? ?????? ??? ???? ??? ???? ???, 2019? ??????? ???? 30? ?? ?? ??? ????. ?? ???? ?? ?? ?????? ????.??? ??? ??? ?? ??? ???? ??? 2020? ? 93? ?? ?? ??? ????.
?? ????? ??????? ???? ?? ??? ???? ??? ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ?????? ??? ??? ??.??? ?? 600? ??? ?? ??? ???? ????? ?? ???? ???? ????? ??? ?? ??? ?? ??. ? ???? 2025??? ?? ? ?? ???? ??? ???? ??.
? ?? ??? ??? ????? ??? ??? ??? ????.?? ??? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??3? ???? ????, LG ???? ??? ????? ??? (ODE -tron)? ???? ??? ???, ???? ?? ?? SUV ?????? 555830? 45242??? 45242??? ?? sportback ?? ?? ??? ???? ????.
?? ??? ??? ??? ?? ?? ??? ??? ?? ?? 60% ? ????.?? ?? ??? ??? ?? ???? ? 1.5?? /wh, 3??? ??? ?? 0.9? ??.??? ?????? ??? ???? ????? ?? ? ??? ??? ? ??.
??? ??? ? ??? ??? ?????? ???? ?? ?? ?? ??? ??? ??? ?? ??? ?? ?? ? ??? ? ???? ???.
??? ?? ?? ??? ? ??? ?? ?? ? ? ??
?? ???? ?? ??? ??? ???? ??? ??? ??? ???? ?? ???? ??, ????? ??? ?? ??? ??? ??? ? ?? ??? ?? ????? ??? ???? ? ??? ??? ???.
? ???? ???? ??? ?? ??? ??? ????, ?? ???? ??? ?? ?? ??, Northvolt ? ?? ?? ?? ??? ? ??? ? ? ??? ? ????.?? ?? ??? ???? ??? ?? ??? ??? ???, ? ??? ??? ?? ??? ??? ?? ??? ??? ?? ??? ????? ??? ?? ??? ?? ???? ???.?? ????? ??? ? ??? ???? ??? ???? ?? ???? ??? ? ??? ? ???? ?? ??? ??.
?? ?? ???????? ??? ????? ??? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ???? ??? ? ?? ??? ??? ????? ???.????? ? ??? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ????? ??? ???? ??? ?????? ???? ??.??? Northvolt ???? ?? ???????? ????? ?? ??? ? ??? ??? ??? ?????? ??.
???? ?? ??? ??? ??? ?? 300? ?? ?? ???? 50% ? ?? ???? ??? ??.??? ? ?? ??? ? ??? ??? ? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ? ??? ?? ? ??? ? ??? ? ? ????
